After a week of choppy price action in a narrow range, Bitcoin (BTC) since the weekend has begun to truly go sideways with nearly flat price action. This range is now down to about $150, centering around the $10,300 price level.
Bitcoin market dominance is falling, and altcoins have started to move, as Bitcoin itself again approaches the downtrend resistance level of its local market structure – again proposing the possible breakout scenario within a few days – and a possible end to boring-ness.
If we first look at the weekly candle that just closed, we see a picture both boring and exciting. Volume has fallen down to almost nothing, with the smallest weekly volume bar in about a year (Gemini exchange).
Bitcoin has been unwilling to close below the 13 exponential moving average (EMA) on this timeframe, and we see that price is squeezing between the 13 and the downtrend resistance. This represents a range of about $800. We have been waiting for an end to consolidation for quite some time, and can expect this end to come within the next month.
Moving to the daily chart, we see the time-tested downtrend area (red band) is again coming up within a matter of days. We might then say that this calm could be the calm before a storm, as the leading crypto will likely have another rejection or a breakout from this level.
We can note here that the EMAs are clustered together in a knot, and this is true on pretty much every Bitcoin timeframe. It suffices to say again that these period of boring Bitcoin never last very long.
To get an idea which way the crypto might break, we can try and take a look at some of the indicators. But there is very little to see on this 3-day chart: on the RSI, we see neither bull nor hidden bearish divergences, signalling nothing. But on the MACD, we do see a bullish histogram divergences from price with higher lows.
Adding to this neutral picture, we have what most think is a (bearish) descending triangle formation atop a long term bull flag. In short, Bitcoin is holding its cards close to its chest.
However, Bitcoin’s market dominance does seem to be clearly doing something, which is falling. After a string of bear divergences, dominance is now making lower highs and lows on its indicators and price; and altcoins have been getting a bit of action in the past week or so as a result. This is not surprising given Bitcoin’s sedateness, and is more or less typical.
Bitcoin dominance has been at critically high levels, which seem like they could only hold in a pre-2017 Bitcoin maximalist world. Seeing a correction here would be no surprise at all. We will cover the altcoin markets later today.
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