Early May Update: Technicals
Bitcoin’s most recent sudden move has left BAT, along with other altcoins, in a cramp, none of them was able to move upwards as the market bites their nails waiting to see what will bitcoin do. BAT has dropped out of the ascending channel and it is now probably going to the 5800 sats area where it will meet the MA20 as the support zone.
There is a possible formation of a Elliot wave, and BAT has currently doing its 4th impulse wave so it is possible that the next rebound off of this zone will see BAT crushing all its previous resistances and hitting a new all time high.
One thing to bear in mind is the turbulent and erratic nature of bitcoin – a sudden thrust up or slide down is always on the cards which would invalidate this and all other analysis and predictions. In such cases, market is shaken up with most traders exiting altcoins and entering bitcoin positions, especially in the initial phases of bitcoin pumps. So it is always good idea to keep a close eye on bitcoin’s behaviour before opening a long or a short on any other coin in the market.
Should this happen, stop by again to check out our updated charts and thoughts.
Trading volumes are looking better in the last 24hrs with reported volume being $48 million and “Real 10” volume being $12 mil. This means that the volume overstatement shows a 4x disparity between the reported and the “Real 10” volume (trading volume on the exchanges that prevent wash trading). Consequently, BAT’s liquidity is only moderately inflated which is not the case with the majority of other coins.
Moreover, BAT comparatively has a solid buy support, according to coinmarketbook.cc. Buy support is measuring sum of buy orders at 10% distance from the highest bid price. This way we can eliminate fake buy walls and whale manipulation and see the real interest of the market in a certain coin. BAT currently has a decent sum of $2.5 million of buy orders measured with this method, which sets BAT buy support/market cap ratio at 0.45%, approximately a market average value. Bitcoin and Ethereum have a 0.27% and 0.28% ratios, respectively. This novel metric indicates there are a lot of manipulations, inflated liquidity and fake orders on BAT trading pairs.
BAT’s market sentiment score, measured by the market analytics firm Predicoin, paints a neutral picture.
Predicoin wraps its analysis up into a single simple indicator known as the SentScore, which is formed from the combination of five different verticals: news, social media, buzz, technical analysis and fundamentals.
Vechain currently has a Sentscore of 4.05.6 which is defined as “the neutral zone” but it is very close to cross the border to the “somewhat positive” sentiment. You can see that Reddit buzz has increased in the last 30 days with Twitter and search volume creating a similar curve with a plainly visible surge in interest around April 24-27th, before a marginal deflation to the end of the month. The reason for this increased interest in that time was the announcement of the official launch of Brave Ads.
Overall, Predicoin’s Sentscore is an excellent indicator of community interest and can provide useful insight into which coins are trending right now.
Early May Update: Fundamentals
- BAT communities are extremely positive with users reporting surprisingly high earnings via Brave Ads. There are also piles of articles from big websites about Brave and BAT, mostly focused on the privacy benefits Brave brings along but also about the importance of new models of online advertising as the current setup is “broken”.
- Starting from April 24th, users of Brave’s latest release of the desktop browser for macOS, Windows, and Linux can choose to view privacy-preserving Brave Ads by opting into Brave Rewards. These users will receive 70% of the ad revenue share as a reward for their attention, which they can auto-contribute to publishers under default settings.
- The LA Times (latimes.com, one of the largest newspapers in the US) has verified with BAT/Brave and is now accepting Basic Attention Token tips (BAT)
- There are now over 100K Brave Browser Publishers and the number is constantly growing.
Below is our long-term forecast where we cover general market movements and sentiment shifts before delving deeper into the specific predictions for BAT.
The Basic Attention Token (BAT) utilizes the Ethereum blockchain and Brave, a specialized web browser, which hosts BAT as its native currency with access to a plethora of advertising services.
BATs are designed for exchange between users, advertisers and publishers allowing advertising companies to commoditize user attention.
The BAT team wants to launch digital advertising into the age of cryptocurrency to ameliorate perceived failures in status quo marketing practices and arm advertisers with improved demographic targeting and content delivery tools. BAT tracks how users interact with advertising content and stores that data in a distributed ledger intended to ensure consumers experience fewer irrelevant advertisements.
Year in Review
One of the largest events for BAT in 2018 was its Coinbase listing.
The BAT Coinbase listing was not so much of a surprise for the community; BAT, an ERC20, was already a usable asset on Coinbase’s Toshi Wallet. The project has not had any run-ins with regulators – not even with the SEC – and has seen a marked increased in users, from 1m in December to 3m by the middle of July to 5+ million of Brave MAU by the end of the year.
They also implemented a donation flow fee revenue, smaller but scaled as far as possible via incentives to users who get BAT revenue from ads and want to give back to their pinned and top sites. A major work has been done to move from Brave Ledger confirmation and revenue flows to entirely decentralized on Ethereum flows using a state channel with ZKP for anonymity.
BAT team also works on integration into other apps based on open source & specs for greater ad buying leverage and publisher onboarding.
BAT Roadmap for 2019
The BAT roadmap is very detailed and transparent. The team constantly works on updating it, regularly informs the community about existing updates and works on the development of its product as can be seen from the activity on GitHub.
The first roadmap was published on March 23, 2017, which indicated the initial path of development of the project in general. The latest roadmap was published on GitHub, which covers all the important milestones of the project from December 2017 to the current moment.
Also, the team posted Brave Ads Roadmap, that plans to see user ads and publisher-integrated ads be implemented in 2019. That is, users, publishers, and the Brave browser will receive their share of the advertiser’s payment. The implementation of this feature can be the main catalyst for the subsequent development of the project.
General Market Movements and Sentiment Shift
The downfall of altcoins that were mainstream media darlings at the start of the year, BAT among them, can be attributed, in part, to novice investors getting scared off once the bear market kicked in with a vengeance. Every resurgence of bitcoin in recent period, was met with the, for the most part, inability of altcoins to rally with it. Reason for that can be rookie investors learning from their mistakes, while smart money that was previously watching from the sidelines has begun to enter into bitcoin.
These entities weren’t about to buy BTC when it was trading at an all-time high, but they’ll take a look now, having missed the boat the first time around. None of them, it seems, are interested in altcoins however, despite the fact that many are trading at a 5x discount. Institutional investors may be cautious, but they’re not foolish.
Some altcoins will continue to have some speculative value for the foreseeable future. But just like the now infamous tulips, the hysteria will eventually subside. We are already witnessing the first phases of that slide and even though most of the bag holders react emotionally to articles that criticize their coins, I am just observing the developments on the market. You better start emotionally detaching yourself from your “great sounding” coin because if goes nowhere, ideas are worthless without execution and real users that see value in the project.
Our BAT Price Prediction for 2019
BAT, as the rest of the market, is tied at the hip of bitcoin’s price action. If bitcoin embarks on another bull run, BAT can hope for one as well. Since that is very unlikely, don’t expect much to change for BAT price-wise in this year. So 2019 will be a year of boring sideways action with minor bitcoin ignited jumps and slumps.
The main currency in cryptocurrency markets is Bitcoin and given this, altcoins tend to fuel Bitcoin runs and Bitcoin tends to do the same in return. Given this relationship, Bitcoin price movements (or lack thereof) tend to effect altcoin prices.
When Bitcoin goes up swiftly, it will likely:
- Suppress or depress altcoins as money flows into Bitcoin;
- Or, take altcoins along for the ride
In cases when Bitcoin plunges, it will likely:
- Depress altcoins as money flows into fiat;
- Or, cause altcoins to boom as money flows into them, but this is rarely the case.
When Bitcoin moves sideways, it will likely:
- Cause altcoins to mimic that as traders wait for a clear sign on the direction of the market;
- Or, cause altcoins to flourish as traders look for returns in altcoins and try to get favorable trades in terms of BTC pairs.
To summarize, Bitcoin is the focal point of the crypto market in many ways, and with BTC trading pairs on every exchange, the gravity of Bitcoin is hard to evade.
The majority of projects will fail — some startups are created just to gather funds and disappear, some would not handle the competition, but most are just ideas that look good on paper, but in reality, are useless for the market.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum said:
“There are some good ideas, there are a lot of very bad ideas, and there are a lot of very, very bad ideas, and quite a few scams as well”
Basic Attention Token (BAT) Future Outlook
As a result, over 95% of successful ICOs and cryptocurrency projects will fail and their investors will lose money. The other 5% of projects will become the new Apple, Google or Alibaba in the cryptoindustry. Will BAT be among those 5%?
BAT is a unique project built on the Ethereum blockchain that is tackling a big problem of one of the largest digital sectors – digital advertising. The project enhances the efficiency of digital advertising, blocking ads and trackers.
The team behind BAT is one of the strongest in the whole cryptocurrency industry with highly relevant experience. Additionally, the BAT ecosystem is very active, that is, the project has a wide network of users, publishers, advertisers, and partners.
The token economics of BAT are pretty sound and the roadmap is detailed and transparent.
BAT enjoys a first mover advantage in their niche and has substantial opportunities to dominate the advertising market given its competition from emerging blockchain projects. Moreover, BAT can also bite off a piece of the market from companies in the traditional industry.
However, not everything is milk and honey as there is a potential scalability problem, which can curtail the development of the project in the long-term.
BAT also remains highly susceptible to adverse market conditions; token price is moderately volatile.
All of this summed up means one thing: BAT might live through couple of orchestrated and, for a regular trader, completely unpredictable pumps but the majority of time will be murky sideways trading with small volume and no significant interest from the market.
Price will heavily depend on what BTC will do and since many analysts think BTC will not be making big moves in this year, it is hard to expect BAT will do them either. The price will probably stagnate and record slow-moving depreciation or appreciation depending on the team activity, potential technological breakthrough or high-level partnership.
Market prediction for Basic Attention Token – BAT Price 2019
With the market being completely unpredictable, forecasting the cryptocurrency price is really more of a gamble and luck rather than a data driven guesstimate.
Let’s throw a glance at the eminent publications and personalities, and their predictions regarding the BAT price, which will give us another point of view to consider:
Walletinvestor is a popular website that does technical analysis-based price predictions of various cryptocurrencies and traditionally has a skeptical outlook for most coins. According to them, BAT is expected to drop heavily to $0.09 per token in one year.
Trading beasts display that BAT can levitate around $0.25 within a year which means it will essentially trade sideways in the next year.
Cryptoground predicts that BAT might hover around the current level and reach $0.21 by the end of 2019. They even added their version of BAT price prediction 2024, where they stated that BAT might reach $0.91 by 2024, a 4.5x increase to the current price.
Digitalcoinprice gave a neutral prediction saying that by 2019 end, BAT might be worth the same amount of dollars like now – around $0.21 per token.
BAT Future: 2020, 2023, 2025
Basic Attention Token (BAT) has been one of the quickest sold ICOs during the 2017 ICO frenzy that spawned thousands of new coins. However, unlike many other vaporware projects, BAT team kept working on their product and the project seems to have a solid future, despite being, up until recently, fairly unknown to the broader crypto community. In 2020, once the market wipes out the worthless projects, BAT might jump into spotlight and top 10 coins ranks which could see the BAT token price go up to its all time high levels of $0.86 per coin.
If BAT survives to see 2023, that would mean the project stood the test of time and user adoption is growing, which would all lead to the token being worth at least 10-100x than its hitherto all time high. That would mean BAT would cost $8-80 per coin.
Again, if BAT survives to see 2025, that would mean the project stood the test of time and user adoption is growing, which would all lead to the token being worth at least 100x+ than its hitherto all time high. That would mean BAT would cost $80+ per coin.
Predicting prices of novel, highly volatile and risky asset classes is a thankless task – best answer is no one knows. Educated guess is that realistic BAT price for the foreseeable future is somewhere between its current price and its all time high.
Join Our Telegram Channel or Follow @CaptainAltcoin
CaptainAltcoin’s writers and guest post authors may or may not have a vested interest in any of the mentioned projects and businesses. None of the content on CaptainAltcoin is investment advice nor is it a replacement for advice from a certified financial planner. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of CaptainAltcoin.com